When the first pitch in the Oxford Super Regional is thrown this afternoon around 1:10 or so, it will mark the Rebels 4th Super Regional in 5 years, which is a run of success that few teams across the country can point to. Unfortunately, the other 3 have ended poorly for the Rebels. Perennial powers Texas, Miami, and Arizona State have all dispatched the Rebels with different levels of ease over the past few years, causing different levels of heartbreak for the Rebel Nation.
This year looks to be a different story. Instead of facing one of college baseball’s storied franchises, the Rebels will square off against Virginia. The Cavaliers are a very good team, having the 2nd best winning percentage in the country as well as the 3rd best ERA. Their pitching staff gave up exactly 2 runs in last weekend’s Irvine Regional, which is the lowest run total any team has surrendered since the format switched in 1999. The Cavs also bat at a solid .331 clip and steal a lot of bases – 104 on the season.
All that said, I like this matchup for the Rebels. The similarities between the teams as well as the schools (posts like this are why blogs were created) are eerie. And while the Cavs have an edge in every statistical category, other than ERA, none really jumps out at you. The Cavaliers pose a better matchup than a team that wants to come in and play 10-9 games all weekend.
Virginia’s projected starting rotation looks like this:
Freshman LH Danny Hultzen (8-1, 2.01)
Sophomore RH Robert Morey (3-0, 2.91)
Senior RH Andrew Carraway (7-1, 4.30)
Phillip Irwin gets the nod this afternoon, but after that Bianco says the rotation is not set, on which I call Shenanigans. Anyone who honestly believes that Drew Pomeranz is not going to take the mound late Saturday morning – a game that a win would either propel the Rebels to Omaha or stave off the end of the season – is just not paying attention. Pom’s performance Monday night was the greatest single pitching performance in Ole Miss history… no way he’s not out there Saturday with the season on the line. As expected, Scott Bittle is not pitching this weekend.
This is not the most talented team Bianco has taken to a Super Regional - not even close. But this is the scrappiest, and the most fun group of guys he’s been around. Their camaraderie has been a key component of their success this year and they’ll need to be extra-loose this weekend as they face a very talented UVA team. The Cavs are streaking now, winners of 8 straight games.
For the first time in a Super Regional, there is no reason to be intimidated by the team name on the front of the jersey. The Cavaliers are playing in their first Super Regional in school history. And despite their win streak, they’re still the team that finished 6th in the ACC. That’s not to undermine what the ‘Hoos have accomplished this year, but to emphasize the fact that this UVA team can be beat. The time has come for the Rebels to make it back to Omaha. And this might just be the team to do it.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Auburn, Arkansas among projected most improved
In today’s Sporting News Today, Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis each answer the question “Which teams are on the rise?” Matt Hayes offers nothing of interest for SEC fans, citing UCLA, SMU, Colorado, Oklahoma State, and North Carolina State. Dave Curtis though offers plenty of fodder for bloggers across the SEC West.
Let’s start with his pick of Arkansas. Here’s how he views it:
I do take issue with a few of his assumptions though. When Chris Low ranked Jevan Snead the 3rd best player in the SEC, many felt that was too high as he’d only produced for one season, and in all honesty, it wasn’t even until the second half of the season that it all clicked for him. That said, how can you possibly rate Mallett the best QB in the division? He hasn’t started a game since 2007 when he completed 43.3% of his passes and compiled a 7/5 TD/INT ratio. Snead may not have proved it over a extended period of time (yet), but he a better track record than Mallett.
Arkansas’ defense should be better as it returns 79.4% of its tackles from last year, but a 4-4 record in conference is certainly no given. Home games against mittippi tate and Auburn seem gimmes and a home tilt with South Carolina is certainly winnable. The road slate is brutal with trips to Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU and a home game against UGA. Right now, I’d hardly count any of those as wins.
And lastly, the comparison of Petrino to Stoops, Tressel, and Meyer is pointless as they all won national championships in their second years at their current employers. Arkansas is not winning a national title this season.
That said, I can see Arkansas winning 9 games before anything he says about Auburn comes to fruition.
I will concede that Auburn’s defense should be solid. Tuberville recruited good players on that side of the ball and Chizik’s reputation was built on his accomplishments as a defensive coordinator. But the spread offense failed miserably last year. What makes anyone think that it will work this year with much of the same key personnel? Particularly work well enough to win 8 games?
When I look at their schedule, I can’t find 8 wins anywhere. Home games against Louisiana Tech, mittippi tate,Testacle Tech Ball State, and Furman are most likely gimme wins, but that’s only 4. Squeezing 3 or 4 more wins (depending on how Curtis sees their bowl game going) out of West Virginia, @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @LSU, Ole Miss, @UGA, and Alabama is not going to be easy for this team.
Let’s start with his pick of Arkansas. Here’s how he views it:
Arkansas +4I happen to agree with him that the Hogs will be much improved. Say what you want to about Bobby Petrino - and I have - but the man wins games. If Ryan Mallett stays healthy and out of trouble, the Arkansas offense should be very solid.
2008: 5-7, 2009: 9-4
Here’s why: Where Bobby Petrino goes, wins follow. He’ll be this season’s example of the second-year bump enjoyed at the highest level by Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer, among others. If Ryan Mallett can quit breaking fingers, he’s the best quarterback in the SEC West. Four wins seem a given in the nonconference (Missouri State, Eastern Michigan, Troy, and Texas A&M in Dallas). And the defense will tackle well enough to manage a 4-4 SEC record and a win in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
I do take issue with a few of his assumptions though. When Chris Low ranked Jevan Snead the 3rd best player in the SEC, many felt that was too high as he’d only produced for one season, and in all honesty, it wasn’t even until the second half of the season that it all clicked for him. That said, how can you possibly rate Mallett the best QB in the division? He hasn’t started a game since 2007 when he completed 43.3% of his passes and compiled a 7/5 TD/INT ratio. Snead may not have proved it over a extended period of time (yet), but he a better track record than Mallett.
Arkansas’ defense should be better as it returns 79.4% of its tackles from last year, but a 4-4 record in conference is certainly no given. Home games against mittippi tate and Auburn seem gimmes and a home tilt with South Carolina is certainly winnable. The road slate is brutal with trips to Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU and a home game against UGA. Right now, I’d hardly count any of those as wins.
And lastly, the comparison of Petrino to Stoops, Tressel, and Meyer is pointless as they all won national championships in their second years at their current employers. Arkansas is not winning a national title this season.
That said, I can see Arkansas winning 9 games before anything he says about Auburn comes to fruition.
Auburn +3So, just so I'm 100% clear here, Gene Chizik won 5 games in 2 seasons at Iowa State and now, apparently magically, he’s going to win 8 in a single season? Riiiiiiiiiight...
2008: 5-7, 2009: 8-5
Here’s why: Don’t expect another tumultuous season on The Plains. The new coaching staff, with its limousines on recruiting trips and Big Cat Weekend for unofficial visits, has at least unified the program. Tommy Tuberville’s recruits will keep this defense strong, and by midseason, new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will turn one of Auburn’s quarterbacks into a proficient passer.
I will concede that Auburn’s defense should be solid. Tuberville recruited good players on that side of the ball and Chizik’s reputation was built on his accomplishments as a defensive coordinator. But the spread offense failed miserably last year. What makes anyone think that it will work this year with much of the same key personnel? Particularly work well enough to win 8 games?
When I look at their schedule, I can’t find 8 wins anywhere. Home games against Louisiana Tech, mittippi tate,
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The Curious Case of Scott Bittle
As the excitement and sheer awe has subsided after Drew Pomeranz's performance Monday night, the Rebels have gotten down to business in preparations for a very good UVA team. The Cavaliers will roll into town this weekend with a ridiculous 3.19 team ERA and a lofty 46-12-1 record.
One of the biggest rumors circulating now is that ace righty Scott Bittle will be available to pitch this weekend against the 'Hoos. Some are very optimistic about it, others not so much.
Count me in the "not so much" group, more specifically the "No Chance in Hell he Pitches" group.
Bittle hasn't pitched in a live game since April 26th when he won the series-clinching game against Georgia. Friday's opening game against UVA will be 40 days since he last pitched. How effective do you really think he would be dropping him into a relief role in a high-pressure Super Regional environment in front of 10,000+ fans?
I tried as hard as any Rebel fan to will Bittle back from his arm troubles, but it's just not going to happen... at least not this weekend. Playing long toss during practice is a completely different animal than toeing the rubber on a mound. Bittle relies so much on his breaking stuff that it's unreasonable to think that his he'll pitch this weekend.
There's a good chance he'll be on the 25-man roster if for no other reason than to give the 'Hoos staff and players the illusion that they might have to face him. Even so, I'll be shocked if he even gets up to throw in the pen.
One of the biggest rumors circulating now is that ace righty Scott Bittle will be available to pitch this weekend against the 'Hoos. Some are very optimistic about it, others not so much.
Count me in the "not so much" group, more specifically the "No Chance in Hell he Pitches" group.
Bittle hasn't pitched in a live game since April 26th when he won the series-clinching game against Georgia. Friday's opening game against UVA will be 40 days since he last pitched. How effective do you really think he would be dropping him into a relief role in a high-pressure Super Regional environment in front of 10,000+ fans?
I tried as hard as any Rebel fan to will Bittle back from his arm troubles, but it's just not going to happen... at least not this weekend. Playing long toss during practice is a completely different animal than toeing the rubber on a mound. Bittle relies so much on his breaking stuff that it's unreasonable to think that his he'll pitch this weekend.
There's a good chance he'll be on the 25-man roster if for no other reason than to give the 'Hoos staff and players the illusion that they might have to face him. Even so, I'll be shocked if he even gets up to throw in the pen.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Just a friendly reminder to the bulldogs
Ole Miss:
SEC Co-Champs
Oxford Regional Champs
Hosting Oxford Super Regional
Southern Miss:
Atlanta Regional Champs
Headed to the Gainesville Super Regional
mittippi tate:
um...
SEC Co-Champs
Oxford Regional Champs
Hosting Oxford Super Regional
Southern Miss:
Atlanta Regional Champs
Headed to the Gainesville Super Regional
mittippi tate:
um...
Drew F#$%ing Pomeranz
Great Googly Moogly... Drew Pomeranz firmly entrenched himself in Ole Miss lore with as clutch a pitching performance as you'll ever see, more than likely the greatest pitching performance in Ole Miss history. Coming back on just 2 days rest, Pom pitched a complete game, tying a school record with 16 Ks and giving up just 2 hits and an unearned run. How the first "hit" he gave up was not ruled an error I'll never know... and yet I won't care.
When Pom came back out in the 9th, my first thought was back to Game 1 in the Tempe Super Regional a couple of years ago when Bianco left Kline in an inning too long. Pom had just gone 7 innings a couple of nights ago... how much gas could he have left? The answer is obvious now - a lot.
A big tip of the Dead Guy cap to Western Kentucky though who tried their damndest to wreck another Oxford Regional. They just ran out of gas tonight after 5 games in 4 days. Their 2-4 hitters are better than a lot of SEC teams, but they were just outmatched tonight against Pom.
When Pom came back out in the 9th, my first thought was back to Game 1 in the Tempe Super Regional a couple of years ago when Bianco left Kline in an inning too long. Pom had just gone 7 innings a couple of nights ago... how much gas could he have left? The answer is obvious now - a lot.
A big tip of the Dead Guy cap to Western Kentucky though who tried their damndest to wreck another Oxford Regional. They just ran out of gas tonight after 5 games in 4 days. Their 2-4 hitters are better than a lot of SEC teams, but they were just outmatched tonight against Pom.
The continuing indictment of Mike Bianco continues to continue
Before we get into this, let’s get one thing straight… Neither I nor any level-headed Rebel is calling for Bianco’s head. The MessageBoardIdiots doing so are just that. He’s taken a moribund Rebel baseball program and built into a national power and people who gloss over that fact are missing the point.
That said, last night’s debacle was certainly more fodder for the faction of Rebel fans who think Bianco should move on. Why was Goforth lifted? Why was he replaced with our closer when we were up 6 with two innings to go? Why was our last remaining serviceable starter utilized at the end of the game?
In all honesty, I don’t see how the Rebs bounce back to win tonight. It was as frustrating a loss as the Game 1 Super Regional loss to Arizona State, and the Rebs were trounced in Game 2 of that one. Both teams will be deep into their rotations, but this year’s version of Rebels is not equipped to win a slugfest. If the arms are tired tonight and serving up BP for 9 innings, that greatly favors the Hilltoppers.
The flipside is that this is the scrappiest Rebel team in recent memory. They’ve scratched their way back to win some games this season that seemed hopeless at times. They’ll need their gutsiest performance of the year to shake off the sting of last night’s game. You could literally feel the air sucked out of the stadium when Wade Gaynor tied it up with his 3-run shot in the 8th. You could also feel the HR coming in the top of the 9th. It was just a matter of who was going to hit it.
Would the game have been different if Gofoth stayed in for the 8th and Morgan came in for the 9th? Who knows?
The bottom line is this: Mike Bianco is a fantastic ambassador for the university. He turned an also-ran sport into a national powerhouse that competes on a national level year after year. He is an elite recruiter. He has stocked the Rebel rosters with more talent top to bottom than any other coach in Ole Miss history. He is not an elite game day coach - at least not yet. Last night’s late-inning changes confirmed that. If the Rebs can't get back up for tonight's game, expect to hear it even more.
That said, last night’s debacle was certainly more fodder for the faction of Rebel fans who think Bianco should move on. Why was Goforth lifted? Why was he replaced with our closer when we were up 6 with two innings to go? Why was our last remaining serviceable starter utilized at the end of the game?
In all honesty, I don’t see how the Rebs bounce back to win tonight. It was as frustrating a loss as the Game 1 Super Regional loss to Arizona State, and the Rebs were trounced in Game 2 of that one. Both teams will be deep into their rotations, but this year’s version of Rebels is not equipped to win a slugfest. If the arms are tired tonight and serving up BP for 9 innings, that greatly favors the Hilltoppers.
The flipside is that this is the scrappiest Rebel team in recent memory. They’ve scratched their way back to win some games this season that seemed hopeless at times. They’ll need their gutsiest performance of the year to shake off the sting of last night’s game. You could literally feel the air sucked out of the stadium when Wade Gaynor tied it up with his 3-run shot in the 8th. You could also feel the HR coming in the top of the 9th. It was just a matter of who was going to hit it.
Would the game have been different if Gofoth stayed in for the 8th and Morgan came in for the 9th? Who knows?
The bottom line is this: Mike Bianco is a fantastic ambassador for the university. He turned an also-ran sport into a national powerhouse that competes on a national level year after year. He is an elite recruiter. He has stocked the Rebel rosters with more talent top to bottom than any other coach in Ole Miss history. He is not an elite game day coach - at least not yet. Last night’s late-inning changes confirmed that. If the Rebs can't get back up for tonight's game, expect to hear it even more.
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