2009 SEC West Preview

The SEC West has as many if not more questions entering 2009. Will the Rebels finally break through and make it to Atlanta, thus robbing Mississippi State fans of their one football talking point? How will MSU and Auburn do with their new coaching staffs? Can Alabama and LSU answer their questions at QB? Can Arkansas’ defense stop anyone?

Here’s how I see the SEC WEST playing out:

1) Ole Miss: Call it a homer pick if you want to, but the talent is there in bunches and the schedule is as favorable as it comes. The Rebels have far and away the best quarterback and most explosive offense in the division and the defensive front 7 are strong as well. There are questions in the secondary and how the Rebels will handle their lofty rankings, but this is the year the Rebels break through.

2) Alabama: If the offense had as few questions as the defense, the Tide would be the pick in the division. Instead, Alabama returns just 4 starters on offense and is replacing a senior quarterback and 3 offensive linemen. That spells trouble in the SEC. I think McElroy will have a solid season and the OL will be sufficient, but in a division with DLs like the Rebels and LSU Tigers have, that could be troublesome for the Tide.

3) LSU: I’ve yet to figure out how this is a top 10 team by most accounts, but apparently that’s just me. The Tigers sport a plethora of highly ranked players at nearly every position on the field, but this team lost 5 games last year. The defense should be better under John Chavis, but what has QB Jordan Jefferson shown anyone that has them so excited. They’ll finish 3rd, but only because Arkansas has a more difficult schedule.

4) Arkansas: From hearing Arkansas fans talk, we all know by now that new quarterback Ryan Mallett is 7’3, runs a 4.5 40, and can stand on his head in one end zone and throw a football and knock an apple off DJ Williams head in the other end zone. Blindfolded. The Hogs’ offense should put up some points provided the OL comes together and give Mallett time to throw the ball. The Hogs are loaded with talented skill position players on offense. The biggest question marks are on the defense, which was just plain bad last year.

5) Auburn: After a drama-filled embarrassing season last year, the War Eagle Tiger Plainsmen are just looking for some stability. The hiring of Gene Chizik was, erm, questionable at best, and he, like Kiffin and Dan Mullen inherit a mess on offense. Chizik hired Gus Malzahn as his OC to run a spread offense with pro-style offense players, just like Tuberville did with Tony Franklin last year. While the recruits are buying in, for now, it’s hard to imagine things going well on the Plains this year.

6) Mississippi State: After suffering through 5 years of Sylvester “Media Darling” Croom and never finishing in the top 100 in the country in total offense, the Bulldogs kicked the fraud to the curb and replaced him with Florida OC Dan Mullen. Mullen plans to run a similar offense to Florida, one that teams in the SEC have had several years to adjust to, and he’ll be running it with an empty cupboard. So far, Mullen is saying all the right things for the MSU fanbase – season ticket sales hit a record last week – but it’ll be an ugly year in Starkville in 2009.

Friday Morning Reading

One week from today, the first SEC game will be in the books. Just one more week...

* Pot, meet kettle. Is it just me or is a Duke fan calling the 2008 Ole Miss Rebels mediocre just a wee bit silly? The fact that the groundwork for our recent 4 year coma was laid by now Duke head coach David Cutcliffe and his utter refusal to recruit or hire a competent staff makes the irony just a little sweeter.

* Nothing groundbreaking here, but a nice read on Snead's path to Ole Miss and expectations for 2009 in The USA Today.

* I wonder what Beck Campbell and her precious little snowflake Mitch Mustain think about this. It's actually a sad tale of what overprotective, overzealous parents can do to a kid.

* A couple of things struck me from this article in The Sun Herald. First, I'm impressed they were able to publish an article mentioning Ole Miss football without also publicly lamenting the fact that Ole Miss and Mississippi State won't play Southern Miss in football. Secondly, who the hell wrote the caption for that picture of Tyson Lee? His mom?

Mississippi State quarterback Tyson Lee passes the ball during practice in Starkville. Lee, the 5-foot-10 senior from Columbus, is the gutsy team leader who overcame physical disadvantages last season with brains and heart, and is the current front runner for the starting position.

* This proves 2 things: Preseason polls are worthless and Jim Leavitt is a douchebag.

* Former Ole Miss tennis star Devin Britton drew a first round matchup with Roger Federer in the US Open.

Rebels drafted 29th in college football program draft

Using the following criteria, sportswriters at espn.com selected the Rebels #29 in their college football program draft:

We'll be drafting the most successful programs in the nation, based on whatever criteria each of us chooses to bring to the situation room. There is no set formula for this. Wins and losses matter most -- and what you've done in the 21st century is more important than what happened in the 1930s -- but fan following and overall prestige count, too.

The Rebels checked in at #7 in the conference, which is fair. What's not surprising is that Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State weren't selected. They're certainly the also-rans in SEC football. What was surprising is that South Carolina was selected, and that they were selected ahead of Arkansas. The Gamecocks lone claim to football relevance is that Thenator Lou Holth and a disinterested, strangely timid version of Steve Spurrier are their last two coaches.

But in answer to Pat Forde's question... Why yes, yes we are going to pretend the Ed Orgeron/10-25 trainwreck never happened. I've been doing that since he was hired in 2005

The rest of the SEC went like this:
2) Florida
5) LSU
8) Alabama
10) Georgia
15) Tennessee
19) Auburn
29) Ole Miss
33) South Carolina
35) Arkansas

Catching up with the pundits

I've been away for awhile, but I'm back.

* The more I read and hear Paul Finebaum, the more I wonder who the shiny-headed blowhard has nekkid pictures of. He's a pot-stirrer at best who rarely - if ever - writes anything non-inflammatory. The latest bandwagon he's jumped on is the anti-Rebel Bandwagon bandwagon.

This piece may be pointless and empty of any real substance, but at least it's clouded by ridiculous hyperbole, metaphors, and Caesarian references. I'm not even going to justify it by quoting it on this site. It's bad even by Finebaumian standards.

I will say one thing though. Mr. Finebaum, please allow me to speak for the Rebel Nation when I assure you that we don't need your pity. Whether or not the Rebels win the SEC West this year remains to be seen, but win or lose, I'll still be a Rebel and you'll still be a washed-up never-was that panders shamelessly to anyone that will actually read or listen to you, the overwhelming majority of which recognize you for the fraud you are. So please, spare me your faux-pity.

* Then there's Tommy Tuberville, whose opinion I actually do respect. He offers a pretty fair assessment of the the three-team race atop the SEC West, though he gives the edge to LSU. Personally, I think he's putting too much stock in Jordan Jefferson, but that's just me.

Tuberville's thoughts are after the good article about the Louisiana players on the Ole Miss roster.

* Wally Hall is typically as big a homer as Finebaum is pointlessly inflammatory, so I was surprised he listed Mallett behind Snead in his rundown of the SEC QBs. If the Hogs OL can gel and hold up, I can see Mallett flourishing in Petrino's offense. That's not the issue I have with this list. It's the ranking outisde the top 3 that leave me scratching my head.

Let me be the first to say that if there are 7 worse quarterbacks in the league than Tyson Lee, the SEC is in for a long, miserable season. He's a shoo-in for highest interception/attempts ratio in the conference. What exactly has Wally Hall seen from Lee that makes him think Lee can even be a serviceable QB in the SEC?

And ranking Joe Cox last? In this mediocre crop of SEC QBs, give me a fifth-year senior with UGA's OL with AJ Green lined up wide any day of the week over the majority of QBs ranked ahead of him. Cox would very well be 4th in the league in passing yards behind Tebow, Snead, and Mallett.

The same can also be said about Greg McElroy ranking 11th. Bama has some questions on the OL, but as long as Julio Jones is running around, McElroy will have one of the top bail-out options in the country.

As long as Garcia's antics are a thing of the past, I think, almost by default, that a Spurrier-coached QB (even a down-trodden, disinterested Spurrier) is going to be better than anyone Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn, or mittippi tate run out there this year.

I'll grant you these lists are always subjective, but I can say unequivocably that Mr. Hall is dead wrong on many accounts in his list. I'm not sure what his criteria were, but if you're basing strictly on the productivity expected for the 2009 season, I think the list should be:
1) Tebow
2) Snead
3) Mallett
4) Cox
5) Garcia
6) Jefferson
7) McElroy
8) Burns
9) Hartline
10) Smith/Adams
11) Crompton
12) Tyson Lee/whoever replaces him when Mullen realizes he's not an SEC-caliber QB

Auburn, Arkansas among projected most improved

In today’s Sporting News Today, Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis each answer the question “Which teams are on the rise?” Matt Hayes offers nothing of interest for SEC fans, citing UCLA, SMU, Colorado, Oklahoma State, and North Carolina State. Dave Curtis though offers plenty of fodder for bloggers across the SEC West.

Let’s start with his pick of Arkansas. Here’s how he views it:

Arkansas +4
2008: 5-7, 2009: 9-4
Here’s why: Where Bobby Petrino goes, wins follow. He’ll be this season’s example of the second-year bump enjoyed at the highest level by Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer, among others. If Ryan Mallett can quit breaking fingers, he’s the best quarterback in the SEC West. Four wins seem a given in the nonconference (Missouri State, Eastern Michigan, Troy, and Texas A&M in Dallas). And the defense will tackle well enough to manage a 4-4 SEC record and a win in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

I happen to agree with him that the Hogs will be much improved. Say what you want to about Bobby Petrino - and I have - but the man wins games. If Ryan Mallett stays healthy and out of trouble, the Arkansas offense should be very solid.

I do take issue with a few of his assumptions though. When Chris Low ranked Jevan Snead the 3rd best player in the SEC, many felt that was too high as he’d only produced for one season, and in all honesty, it wasn’t even until the second half of the season that it all clicked for him. That said, how can you possibly rate Mallett the best QB in the division? He hasn’t started a game since 2007 when he completed 43.3% of his passes and compiled a 7/5 TD/INT ratio. Snead may not have proved it over a extended period of time (yet), but he a better track record than Mallett.

Arkansas’ defense should be better as it returns 79.4% of its tackles from last year, but a 4-4 record in conference is certainly no given. Home games against mittippi tate and Auburn seem gimmes and a home tilt with South Carolina is certainly winnable. The road slate is brutal with trips to Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU and a home game against UGA. Right now, I’d hardly count any of those as wins.

And lastly, the comparison of Petrino to Stoops, Tressel, and Meyer is pointless as they all won national championships in their second years at their current employers. Arkansas is not winning a national title this season.

That said, I can see Arkansas winning 9 games before anything he says about Auburn comes to fruition.

Auburn +3
2008: 5-7, 2009: 8-5
Here’s why: Don’t expect another tumultuous season on The Plains. The new coaching staff, with its limousines on recruiting trips and Big Cat Weekend for unofficial visits, has at least unified the program. Tommy Tuberville’s recruits will keep this defense strong, and by midseason, new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will turn one of Auburn’s quarterbacks into a proficient passer.

So, just so I'm 100% clear here, Gene Chizik won 5 games in 2 seasons at Iowa State and now, apparently magically, he’s going to win 8 in a single season? Riiiiiiiiiight...

I will concede that Auburn’s defense should be solid. Tuberville recruited good players on that side of the ball and Chizik’s reputation was built on his accomplishments as a defensive coordinator. But the spread offense failed miserably last year. What makes anyone think that it will work this year with much of the same key personnel? Particularly work well enough to win 8 games?

When I look at their schedule, I can’t find 8 wins anywhere. Home games against Louisiana Tech, mittippi tate, Testacle Tech Ball State, and Furman are most likely gimme wins, but that’s only 4. Squeezing 3 or 4 more wins (depending on how Curtis sees their bowl game going) out of West Virginia, @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @LSU, Ole Miss, @UGA, and Alabama is not going to be easy for this team.

SEC Football as Tom Hanks movies

So I'm a few New Belgium Mighty Arrows into the Final Four games Saturday night and start thumbing through the guide during a commercial break when I stumbled across three Tom Hanks movies on at the same time. While the beer certainly didn't live up the standards set by its Fat Tire brethren, it did help inspire this ridiculous post.

So, here they are, without further ado, all 12 SEC football teams as Tom Hanks movies. Got better suggestions? Leave ‘em in the comments.

Alabama: Turner & Hooch
Detective Scott Turner is a straight laced, no frills kind of detective. Nick Saban is a no-nonsense, no frills kind of coach – never a hair out of place in his feathery bangs. Between his owner dying and pairing up with Turner, Hooch was a mess. He drooled everywhere, tore things up, and basically a lost cause. Between the Bear dying and before hiring Saban, Alabama was much the same way. Sure they would do well every now and then, but they had to cheat to do it. They bought a national title in the early 90s, then suffered through several ignominious years before hiring Saban.

Arkansas: Catch Me If You Can
In his early days, Frank Abagnale imitated an airline pilot, a teacher’s assistant, a doctor, and an attorney. When things took a turn for the worse, he’d disappear in the night and move on to his next gig. Finally, after getting busted, he aligned himself with Hanks’ Carl Hanratty and began improving national fraud defense. Bobby Petrino is currently at his 12th coaching spot since entering the business in 1983. He’s been the head coach of 3 different teams in the last 5 years and has flirted with several others. He seems to have found a niche in Fayetteville though and the Hogs have a chance to be much improved from last season.

Auburn: Apollo 13
Before takeoff, everyone was excited about Apollo 13’s mission to the moon. Last season was supposed to be a good one for Auburn. A new high-flying offense was in place, the defense returned 6 of its starting back 7, and the Tigers were ranked as high as #10 in the preseason. Needless to say, much-like the ill-fated Apollo 13 lunar mission, Auburn’s season encountered problem after problem. There was bickering amongst staff before finally crashing roughly back to earth at the end. The major difference being that Jim Lovell was congratulated for his leadership in the “successful failure” that was Apollo 13; Tommy Tuberville was inexplicably shown the door.

Florida: Sleepless in Seattle
After Sam Baldwin's wife died, he looked lost and clueless, and didn't know who to turn to. He packs up and moves out west and begins dating a girl that his son can't stand. He finally meets the one he's meant to be with at the end and live happily ever after. After Spurrier left Florida, the Gators looked lost and clueless, seeking solace in the arms of Ron Zook, who the Gator Nation hated from the beginning. Now, they've found Urban Meyer and have won 2 titles in 3 years and will be favored to win it all next year.

Georgia: Bonfire of the Vanities
Tom Wolfe’s Bonfire of the Vanities is a fantastic novel that was a bestseller and huge success. Unfortunately, despite a All-Star cast with Hanks, Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Melanie Griffith, etc., the movie version pretty much sucked. When you read about Georgia’s team, the star power was obvious – Stafford, Moreno, Green, etc. Expectations were very high, including a preseason #1 ranking. Then, much like BotV, when you watched it on TV, you realize it’s a little disappointing on screen.

Kentucky: Saving Private Ryan
The beginning of Saving Private Ryan – the storming of the beaches at Normandy – is absolutely phenomenal. It’s beautifully crafted cinematography at its peak. Once the movie settles in though, it’s really not that different from every other war movie ever filmed. There’s a little bit of a twist at the end of the movie to tie it all together. The last two seasons, Kentucky has started out as well as possible: 5-0 and 4-0. Once the seasons settled in, the ‘Cats were average at best, finishing only 7-5 and 6-5. The bowl victories were nice surprises to wrap up the seasons.

LSU: The Man with One Red Shoe
Richard Drew is just an average joe who - due to circumstances beyond his control - looks goofy as he wears mismatched shoes on a flight. He is identified as a CIA target, and though he remains completely oblivious to everything around him, it all works out for him in the end. Les Miles always looks goofy wearing the world's largest hat and was certainly an average joe at Oklahoma State - 28-21 overall, 16-16 in the Big 12. And things have certainly worked out well for Miles so far, despite a seemingly oblivious approach to coaching.

Mississippi State: You’ve Got Mail
While I'm not a fan of either Sleepless in Seattle or You've Got Mail, I know a cheap knock off when I see one. The producers of You've Got Mail were trying to cash in on the chemistry that Hanks and Meg Ryan had in Sleepless in Seattle, but the result just wasn't as good. Same thing in Starkville. Hoping to recreate some of the recent magic in Gainesville, the Bulldogs hired away Dan Mullen from Meyer's staff, and while the results have yet to be seen, it's hard to imagine the end result being anything less than a poor attempt at recreating UF's offense.

Ole Miss: That Thing You Do!
Mr. White takes a group of talented musicians with no experience outside the town of Erie, PA, and molds them into the No. 1 rock band in the country. Houston Nutt, stepped into Oxford and took a group of talented kids who had never been shown "how to win" and recorded a 9-4 season and a Cotton Bowl victory. The major difference being that The Wonders broke up at the end of the movie, while Nutt seems to have the Rebels in place to continue their success.

South Carolina: Volunteers
Lawrence Whatley Bourne III had it all. He was a spoiled rich kid leading a pampered life until he had to join the Peace Corps to escape his creditors. Steve Spurrier had it all. He’d won a National championship as the coach of his alma mater, had the Gators as one of the top programs in the entire country, and a fun punching bag in Phil Fulmer. He got greedy, left for the NFL, and when that didn’t work out, sought refuge in Columbia where – so far – has done more to tarnish his legacy than build upon it.

Tennessee: The Terminal
What? You were expecting Volunteers? Think about it… Viktor Navorski can’t go back to whence he came as a war broke out. So he’s stuck in a foreign land, has trouble communicating with people, garners strange looks from people, and eventually makes some important friends in the airport. That’s pretty much the Lane Kiffin experience. He can’t go back to the NFL because he angered Al Davis, he’s become a one-man sideshow that it’s hard not to stop and stare at, he's found it very difficult to communicate with his peers, but he did surround himself with a knowledgeable staff.

Vanderbilt: Big
All Josh Baskin wanted to be was big. He couldn’t get the girl or ride the roller coaster, so Zoltar granted him his wish. He grew up, moved to New York and got to play with the big boys, before wishing to be a boy again. After years of wishing they were big, the Commodores finally broke through last year with their first bowl appearance since 1982. Unfortunately, like Josh Baskin’s appearance as an adult, Vandy’s was a ruse and one that won’t last, but one that made for good tv while it did.

It's the coaches, stupid

Much like football season, we've heard all season long how the SEC is way down in basketball this season. While the football claims were proven a bit incorrect, there is no disputing the fact that the SEC just isn't what it used to be in hoops. This article in the Nashville City Paper lists a few possible reasons why, but it leaves off the most important reason: the quality of coaches just ain't what it used to be.

We're certainly as guilty as any school in the conference as we clung to Rod Barnes two years too long. Once Marc Dukes retired, the program spiraled to the ground at breakneck pace. And while the SEC was never filled with future HOF coaches, it never had as high a percentage of bad coaches as it has had in the last few years.

Here's a breakdown of the current SEC coaches:

Stars:

Florida
Billy Donovan is obviously the most accomplished coach in the SEC, but the Gators haven't been quite the same since Anthony Grant took the head job at VCU (which is 76-25 in his 3 years there.) There's always an influx of good talent in Gainesville, and the man's got two national titles.

Tennessee
Talk about breathing new life into a program. Pearl took over the Vols after a series of non-descript sleepy coaches and has Knoxville talking men's hoops for a change.

Solid:

Mississippi State
I'll put aside my bias here and say that Rick Stansbury has far exceeded my expectations there. When he was hired, his only real qualification was being Richard Williams' bag man, but he's got the Bulldogs as one of the most consistent programs in the conference.

Vanderbilt
Kevin Stallings has done some good things as Vanderbilt, certainly better than Jan van Brenda Kolfff. The 'Dores have been fairly consistent winners under his watch. They slipped a bit this year, but bring back a solid nucleus of players for next season.

Headed in right direction:

LSU
Aaah, John Brady. Uber-recruiter, but couldn't tell you an X from an O. And he always looked disheveled on the sidelines. Sure the Tigers made a few nice runs in the tourney under Brady's watch, but those were done on talent alone. Trent Johnson is a good coach, but we'll know more next year when he actually has to play underclassmen.

Ole Miss
Again, I'll put my bias aside (as best I can) and say that the hiring of Andy Kennedy was a very good one. He had the team on the bubble his first two seasons in Oxford, and held together a train wreck of a season this past year.

South Carolina
Darrin Horn brought a higher energy level than Dave Odom did, but my grandmom probably would too. It's a bit early to make the call on him, but he won big at WKU, and he's off to a good start in Columbia.

Next to be purged:

Auburn
Jeff Lebo's job was on death's door in the early part of last season before a late season rally saved him. He's a decent enough coach, but there's no reason to believe he'll be anything more than an average coach in the SEC.

Arkansas
John Pelphrey is a joke. I know the Hogs are enamored with him, I just haven't figured out why. Had he not played at Kentucky, there's no way the Ginger Kid hired by an SEC school. I understand the Hogs firing Stan Heath. It was a questionable hire from the beginning after just one year of success with an inherited Kent State team. But Pelphrey is not the answer. Not one player on that team this year got better as the year wore on. He'll be fired after the 2010-11 season.

Kentucky
The 'Cats - like Arky - made an outright bad choice when they hired Billy Gillispie. He's been the mastermind of some of the most embarrassing losses in UK history and is the architect of the first Wildcat team in nearly two decades to not Dance at the end of the season. It's gotta be tough for the Big Blue to see Pitino and Louisville as the #1 overall seed and Tubby Smith and Minnesota making a (very brief) appearance in the Tourney. As long as Gillispie's there, it's tough to see them doing anything but underachieving. I'd not be surprised to see John Calipari roaming the UK sidelines next year.

In Transition

Alabama
Mark Gottfried patrolled the sidelines for 10+ years in Tuscaloosa and brought in several highly touted players. While he did take the Tide to the Elite 8 in 2003-04, that's about it. Alabama brass has said they'll pay ~$2M to bring in the right coach this time. Whether it's Mike Anderson or Tim Floyd or Anthony Grant or Oliver Purnell, it'll certainly be a step in the right direction from Gottfried.

Georgia
As long as the Bulldogs avoid the publicity stunt and not hire Bobby Knight, they can make a real upgrade from Dennis Felton. They made the worst hire in recent SEC history several years back with Jim Harrick, but with Anthony Grant available, it's hard to imagine he's not in Athens next year.