Nutt, Saban, and Coaching Trends

You can add Shane from the Capstone Report to the growing list of bloggers who are latching onto the Anti-Ole Miss Bandwagon, though, like most, he lacks creativity in his reasoning. It's not quite Finebaumian in its lack of legitimate points, but it's close:

Some of you might ask, “What about Ole Miss?” The pundits are convinced they will play Florida in the title match. Well, those of us who’ve studied Houston Nutt know that (and I keep bringing it up), somewhere in the course of the season, he’ll blow a game he’s supposed to win - it happens every year. In fact, I think that is exactly why Arkansas fired him. That’s right Rebel fans, Arkansas cut Nutt loose for “choking.” Putting your faith in Coach Nutt is futile. Under his guidance, I’m afraid Ole Miss is destined to remain a pretender.

Ah yes, the Houston Nutt argument. For those who have actually taken the time to look at things – like cocknfire did here – there’s actually a different story. But we shouldn’t let facts get in the way of this argument. Sure, Nutt’s teams have dropped some games they shouldn’t have – it’s part of the game – but I don’t recall Nutt comparing those losses to “catastrophic events” like Pearl Harbor or the 9/11 Attacks. Saban’s Tide were embarrassed last year in the Sugar Bowl by Utah in a game Alabama was supposed to win. Let's not forget that Saban can scratch losses to UAB and Louisiana-Monroe off his bucket list as well.

I do find it interesting though that he brings up coaching trends. In his 13 seasons of being a head coach in college football, Saban’s teams have won 10+ games 3 times: 2001, 2003, and 2009. His teams won 8 and 9 games in 2002 and 2004 respectively, meaning he’s never won 10+ games in back to back seasons. It’s going to take 6+ SEC wins to win the SEC West this year, meaning the Tide will need 10+ wins to secure it. According to Shane’s logic, history always repeats itself, so there’s no way Alabama win double-digit games this year, right?

Also, given Saban's inability to win double-digit games in back-to-back seasons, this statement becomes even more outlandish than it first appears:

I have no doubt that these two SEC “superpowers” will meet in Atlanta for the next three or four years in a row.

And if we're dwelling on trends, then Alabama will be back on probation in, what? 2011? Maybe 2012?

But hey, it's all just posturing at this point. All that matters is this... both teams have a legitimate shot at being undefeated when they clash on October 10th, setting up the biggest game in Oxford in decades, certainly since LSU in 2003. The winner of that game will have the inside track for the SEC Western Division crown and a shot at Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

ESPN SEC Bowl Predictions and some Fail

There's a good read on Chris Low's blog right now about bowl chances for all 12 SEC teams this season. He predicts a Sugar Bowl bid for the Rebels, which is certainly hard to complain about.

Then there's the relapse into the ESPN tradition of either being unable to distinguish between Ole Miss and Mississippi State or just the lack of motivation to get it right.

Any idiot can write on the internets

The very existence of this blog should be proof of that, though I at least (occasionally) try to minimize the idiotic statements on this page. That's more than can be said for Jeremy Wood at The Barrow County News, who, as Senator Blutarsky points out, has created "easily the worst SEC preview I’ve read so far this preseason".

Here is Mr. Wood's assessment of the Rebels, with the emphasis mine:

Everyone seems to love these guys a little too much. They lucked into a win at Florida last year when the Gators couldn’t hang onto the ball, and beat an underwhelming LSU team and a we’re-not-interested-in-playing-in-the-Cotton-Bowl Texas Tech team down the stretch. Now they’re a top-ten team? They could take over for the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs as the team that was saddled with huge expectations and didn’t come through. Georgia in 2008 was much better than these guys are, and that Bulldog team couldn’t win their division. The caveat with Ole Miss is that they have the softest non-league slate of anybody in the conference – playing at Memphis will be their toughest opponent – and it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see them undefeated ... when LSU comes to town Nov. 21.

First off, you can never love the Rebels too much. But seriously, if the Rebels are undefeated on November 21st when LSU rolls into town, that's equivalent to a 10-0, 6-0 record, which would undoubtedly have any SEC team in the Top 10. I also don't get why Wood (and so many others for that matter) try to cheapen the Rebels wins over UF and TTU last season. All the Florida fans that I've talked to will freely admit that the Rebels just beat them at the line of scrimmage all day long. Sure Florida was the better team last year, but for one day in Gainesville last year, the Rebels just straight up outplayed them.

Same thing with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders just weren't ready for the team speed on defense and had no answer for the Wild Rebel. It had nothing to do with disinterest. They got hit in the mouth and had no answer. So they folded.

And as laughable as his assessment of Ole Miss is, at least he (sort of) attempts to justify it with some sort of reason. For Alabama, he just uses good old fashioned bias:

My favorite program to root against in the conference (I can’t stand Saban). They lost a veteran quarterback and four starters off their offensive line, which was their biggest strength a year ago. It definitely feels like a 7-5 team.

2009 Preseason Coaches' poll released

So the coaches' poll came out today and, as expected, the Rebels are ranked in the Top 10. Alabama, as expected is ranked ahead of the Rebels at #5. What caught my attention is that LSU is ahead of the Rebels at #9.

Again, I ask, why is LSU going to be so much better this year? Sure Chavis will make a big difference on the defense - it can't be much worse - but why should I (or anyone not drining purple/gold kool-aid) believe that the offense is going to be more consistent this year? They are relying on a QB who is 0-2 against SEC competition as a starter and touted as a mobile QB despite a paltry 2.7 ypc average last year.

If not for a pair of goal line knees last year, the Rebels would've beaten the Tigers by 25 points last year in Baton Rouge. Sure the Tigers have the overrated Charles Scott to pound the ball with, but asking Jordan Jefferson to be productive enough to give Scott room to manuever is going to be more difficult than many Tiger fans seem to realize. Particularly when the Tigers draw both UGA and Florida out of the East, the two teams the Rebels avoid.

Obviously, it's all speculation at this point, and my view of it will certainly be viewed as biased at any point. That said, I can't think of one good reason a team that finished with an 8-5 record and has no proven QB on the roster would be ranked ahead of a team that finished on a 6-game tear and a darkhorse Heisman contender other than reputation.

In response to ATVS

I wanted to take a minute to respond to this post from And The Valley Shook, a very well done LSU blog. It's a fairly in-depth rundown of why Ole Miss won't win the West this year, and unlike Finebaum's pointless rant, actually offers some research.

Take this quote for example:

But this is a team that has to improve in order to win the division, and I don't see that improvement. I believe that it will be a major challenge to merely maintain the massive improvement the program made last season. I actually believe Nutt is up for that challenge, but expecting more seems a tad unrealistic. The jury is still out on whether last season was a one-year aberration or a new level for Ole Miss. The most likely answer is that the truth lies somewhere in between.

I take umbrage with a few points in that paragraph, and not just the misuse of the word "massive".

• First, I'm not sure how much the Rebels actually have to improve to win the division this year. I'd say there's signiifcantly more pressure on LSU to get better, particularly when they're building their offense around an unproven and (at least in my eyes) overrated commodity in Jordan Jefferson. There's also a lot of pressure on Alabama to simply maintain what they were last year with the loss of a senior QB, a huge chunk of their OL and some key defensive losses. Arkansas has the potential to be the most improved overall, but a killer schedule leaves them a year away from a run at the SEC West. Auburn and MSU are non-factors in the grand scheme of things.


• As for not seeing the improvement, considering the Rebels haven't even reported yet, that's a bold statement. No one will see any improvement or steps back until the product hits the field next week. And it'll most likely be the South Carolina game before the Rebels are faced with an imposing test, and that'll give Nutt and staff two games and an off week to rectify any problems. While everyone else in the West is trying to get their offense in sync, Snead and crew will be hanging 50+ on Memphis and SELA.


• Earlier in the post, he says that last year was good, but not great, which I agree with. The last 6 games were fantastic, but the seaon as a whole left something to be desired. But his sentence wondering whether 2008 was a one-year abberation or a new level for Ole Miss shows a subtle disrespect for the Rebels. Wiith a legitimate head coach in place for the first time since Pine Box Tommy skated town under a cloak of darkness and the current and incoming talent pool, there's no reason that the Rebels can't maintain a degree of success similar to 2008. It wasn't all that long ago that Ole Miss took 4/5 from the Tigers before the dark days of EOr ran the ship ashore.

Rebels drafted 29th in college football program draft

Using the following criteria, sportswriters at espn.com selected the Rebels #29 in their college football program draft:

We'll be drafting the most successful programs in the nation, based on whatever criteria each of us chooses to bring to the situation room. There is no set formula for this. Wins and losses matter most -- and what you've done in the 21st century is more important than what happened in the 1930s -- but fan following and overall prestige count, too.

The Rebels checked in at #7 in the conference, which is fair. What's not surprising is that Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State weren't selected. They're certainly the also-rans in SEC football. What was surprising is that South Carolina was selected, and that they were selected ahead of Arkansas. The Gamecocks lone claim to football relevance is that Thenator Lou Holth and a disinterested, strangely timid version of Steve Spurrier are their last two coaches.

But in answer to Pat Forde's question... Why yes, yes we are going to pretend the Ed Orgeron/10-25 trainwreck never happened. I've been doing that since he was hired in 2005

The rest of the SEC went like this:
2) Florida
5) LSU
8) Alabama
10) Georgia
15) Tennessee
19) Auburn
29) Ole Miss
33) South Carolina
35) Arkansas

Blind Side Previews up, looks pretty bad

Like any college football fan, particularly those blessed enough to be red and bue, I read and enjoyed Michael Lewis' The Blind Side. It was hard not to pull for Michael Oher to do well after his humble beginnings. When it was announced that there would be a movie adaptation, I was skeptical. Movies are rarely, if ever, up to par with their written counterparts. When it was announced Sandra Bullock was cast as Leanne Touhy, I officially gave up hope. Based on the above preview, that was the right decision.

The Blind Side seamlessly wove Oher's story with the emergence of the high salaries shelled out to left tackles, who's main job is to protect the blind side of the quarterback. When not dealing with the intricacies of the position, it portrayed Big Mike as a gentle giant who was rescued by an affluent family in East Memphis and focused on his (sometimes difficult) adjustment to that lifestyle.

At no point in the book was Leanne Touhy the focus. The trailer seems to portray her as the protagonist and focuses on her story. I understand that she's (for some reason) a popular actress, but Disney-fying the book is bad. Outside of Speed and A Time to Kill, I can't think of a single movie of hers that's even remotely watchable. You can tell from the snippets shown that they screenplay took some liberties with the actual story - Leanne threatening the guy at the table, for example - and made the movie about her, which is an absolute shame. Oher's story is a remarkable one, but apparently not enough so for Hollywood.

While it will be interesting to see Saban in an LSU shirt again and it's always entertaining trying to decipher what Ed Orgeron is saying, I'll wait until the DVD comes out to catch this, if even then.

***Update***
Blutarsky and Hey Jenny Slater share my skepticism, though Ghost at Red Cup Rebellion holds a more favorable view.

A buncha Sunday Linkage

* Tyson Lee hopes to be the next star quarterback in the SEC. Hey, when I was in college, I hoped I'd be able to go to class with a Camelbak filled with Jack and Coke, but my aspirations were met with a certain degree of disapproval by UPD. A word of advice to Mr. Lee, if I may... I'd worry about merely surviving the season without being trampled by the other team's DL. That's probably a more realistic goal for you.

* This is a surprisingly level-headed look from Oklahoma at the difference in the Big12 and the SEC. Bottom line is that while it may be fun to run up 60 points against bad defenses for an entire season, but when you're actually forced to play a decent defense, you're in for a rude awakening.

* It won't happen again, but it appears the numbers are working out for Nutt and staff.

* There's a good read in the Chattanooga Free Press about the upcoming season.

* You have to wonder about this article coming from a Tennessee writer. He's obviously fishing for a response with his lead...

Whenever Ole Miss plays football, TWO of the NCAA's most productive passing attacks probably will be on display - one belonging to the Rebels, the other belonging to whoever they're playing.

Considering Tennessee passed for more than 200 yards exactly twice last year and bring back the same quarterbacks and very few experienced wideouts, I assure you that UT won't be a productive passing attack against Nix's boys.

* LSU and Auburn both have issues.

Auburn Game Preview at Track 'Em Tigers

Acid Reign at Track 'Em Tigers has a very in-depth preview of the Halloween showdown between the Rebels and the Tigers up. It breaks down position-by-position matchups. Most of it falls within reason, though I do strongly disagree with this assessment:

Auburn offensive line vs. Ole Miss defensive line: Auburn's offensive line handled the Ole Miss line pretty well, last fall. Unfortunately they were trying to block 8 or 9 guys, so the running game went nowhere. And it was a banged up Ole Miss line. Auburn has bulked up this year, but has little depth. Ole Miss returns veterans up front. Senior Ted Laurent anchors the middle, along with junior Lawron Scott., and the pair should get help from junior Jerald Powe. Senior Greg Hardy is an all-star at end, IF he plays. Senior Marcus Tillman and junior Kentrell Lockett are pretty good ends, too. Advantage: Even.

Even? There's not an offensive line in the conference that is "Even" with our DL. Particularly one that he even admits has "little depth".

Then there's the summary and prediction:(emphasis mine)

While Ole Miss appears on paper to have significant advantages, the game is at Auburn, and Auburn will be looking for a good showing after a tough trip to Baton Rouge.

Prediction: Ole Miss cannot solve the hobgoblin of Auburn's Malzhan offense. Both teams move the ball well, but mistakes on the road doom the Rebels. Auburn hangs on, 34-27.

Wait, what? Our defense is going to be worried about Auburn's offense? I'm fairly certain that Nutt, Nix, and staff aren't worried about being picked apart by Chris Todd and/or Kodi Burns. Sure Malzahn did well as OC at Arkansas and as HC at Tulsa, but consider the offensive talent he was working with in Fayetteville and the defenses he faced at Tulsa. I highly doubt Auburn scores 34 points in any SEC game this year, particularly not against the Rebel defense.

For the most part though, it's a good read with some useful insight.

Winning the SEC West: Inside the Numbers

Let's get the obvious out of the way first: The hype leading up to the 2009 football season is something that Oxford hasn't seen in decades. For the first time in years, the Rebels will field an explosive offense with a stout defense and experienced special teams. There's legitimate talk of the Rebels making the program's first appearance in the SEC Championship game.

But what will it take to make it to Atlanta? Besides just winning more games than divisional opponents and a little bit of luck along the way, what do the Rebels need to do on the field to put themselves in that position?

Using the always awesome cfbstats.com, I took a look at the SEC Western Division winners from the last 5 years and some key metrics. See below for how the quintet compares in Offensive Yards Per Play, Defensive Yards Per Play, Run/Pass Ration, Turnover Margin, Offensive Third Down Conversion Rate, Defensive Third Down Conversion Rate, Offensive Points per Game, and Defensive Points Per Game.
So what do the numbers say? For one, turnover margin is not necessarily as important as many think it is... just look at LSU from 2007 (+20) and 2005 (-9). It also points to a reliance on a strong running game as each team had at least a 1.38/1 run/pass ratio. The 2004 Auburn Tigers had a 1.8/1 ratio. Not surprisingly, they also point to a strong defense that can get off the field in 3rd down situations. None of the last 5 winners has allowed 20ppg or more than 4.7 ypp.

Another interesting note is how comparable last year's Rebel team was to the previous winners. And, just for some sadistic fun, I threw up the numbers from the 0-8 team.
Yep, last year's team was much better. The question is, of course, can this year's Rebels maintain that explosiveness on both sides of the ball with the losses of Peria Jerry, Michael Oher, and Mike Wallace? Peria will certainly be missed, but with the depth the Rebels have stockpiled along the defensive front, that unit will be okay. Patching up the holes on the offensive line certainly present some issues, but talent is there and Mike Markuson is one of the best in the business. If a legitimate deep threat steps up to replace Mike Wallace, there's no reason to think that this year's offense won't be as good if not better than last year's.

Perhaps most telling in this comparison is the difference in the number of plays we ran on offense, and under a much healthier run/pass ratio. As bad as our QB situation was in Orgeron's entire tenure, we still threw the ball more times than we ran it in 2007, mostly because we were behind so big so early.

Coaches Pre-Season All-SEC Team Announced

It was posted here on the official conference site and raises some interesting questions.

John Jerry and Greg Hardy both landed 1st team nods, Dexter McCluster and Jevan Snead earned 2nd team nods, and Shay Hodge, Marcus Tillman, and Joshua Shene wound up on the 3rd team. Not a bad showing for the Rebels.

One thing of note though... three player were unanimous first teamers: Eric Berry, Ciron Black, and Julio Jones. Not Tim Tebow though. While he's the obvious choice as first team QB, there was at least one dissenter along the way and my guess would be Mr. Kiffin. And, by the way, I know Julio is great and all, but how is he unanimous and AJ Green isn't? Green's numbers were better than Jones' last year.

Speaking of quarterbacks, it's a sad state of affairs when the 3rd team nod gets split between Stephen Garcia and Mike Hartline. Those two combined for 2498 yards with a 15/16 TD/INT ratio. I'd say that Mallett or Cox will end up 3rd team. I'd even take McElroy before either Garcia or Hartline.

I also think it's interesting that no Rebel RB made the list. I know that the depth Nutt has at his disposal hurts individual numbers, but gimme Brandon Bolden over any back in the league except for Charles Scott. Michael Smith will put up gaudy numbers as the featured back at Arkansas, but if I need 2 yards, I'll take Scott or Bolden over anyone else.

Catching up with the pundits

I've been away for awhile, but I'm back.

* The more I read and hear Paul Finebaum, the more I wonder who the shiny-headed blowhard has nekkid pictures of. He's a pot-stirrer at best who rarely - if ever - writes anything non-inflammatory. The latest bandwagon he's jumped on is the anti-Rebel Bandwagon bandwagon.

This piece may be pointless and empty of any real substance, but at least it's clouded by ridiculous hyperbole, metaphors, and Caesarian references. I'm not even going to justify it by quoting it on this site. It's bad even by Finebaumian standards.

I will say one thing though. Mr. Finebaum, please allow me to speak for the Rebel Nation when I assure you that we don't need your pity. Whether or not the Rebels win the SEC West this year remains to be seen, but win or lose, I'll still be a Rebel and you'll still be a washed-up never-was that panders shamelessly to anyone that will actually read or listen to you, the overwhelming majority of which recognize you for the fraud you are. So please, spare me your faux-pity.

* Then there's Tommy Tuberville, whose opinion I actually do respect. He offers a pretty fair assessment of the the three-team race atop the SEC West, though he gives the edge to LSU. Personally, I think he's putting too much stock in Jordan Jefferson, but that's just me.

Tuberville's thoughts are after the good article about the Louisiana players on the Ole Miss roster.

* Wally Hall is typically as big a homer as Finebaum is pointlessly inflammatory, so I was surprised he listed Mallett behind Snead in his rundown of the SEC QBs. If the Hogs OL can gel and hold up, I can see Mallett flourishing in Petrino's offense. That's not the issue I have with this list. It's the ranking outisde the top 3 that leave me scratching my head.

Let me be the first to say that if there are 7 worse quarterbacks in the league than Tyson Lee, the SEC is in for a long, miserable season. He's a shoo-in for highest interception/attempts ratio in the conference. What exactly has Wally Hall seen from Lee that makes him think Lee can even be a serviceable QB in the SEC?

And ranking Joe Cox last? In this mediocre crop of SEC QBs, give me a fifth-year senior with UGA's OL with AJ Green lined up wide any day of the week over the majority of QBs ranked ahead of him. Cox would very well be 4th in the league in passing yards behind Tebow, Snead, and Mallett.

The same can also be said about Greg McElroy ranking 11th. Bama has some questions on the OL, but as long as Julio Jones is running around, McElroy will have one of the top bail-out options in the country.

As long as Garcia's antics are a thing of the past, I think, almost by default, that a Spurrier-coached QB (even a down-trodden, disinterested Spurrier) is going to be better than anyone Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn, or mittippi tate run out there this year.

I'll grant you these lists are always subjective, but I can say unequivocably that Mr. Hall is dead wrong on many accounts in his list. I'm not sure what his criteria were, but if you're basing strictly on the productivity expected for the 2009 season, I think the list should be:
1) Tebow
2) Snead
3) Mallett
4) Cox
5) Garcia
6) Jefferson
7) McElroy
8) Burns
9) Hartline
10) Smith/Adams
11) Crompton
12) Tyson Lee/whoever replaces him when Mullen realizes he's not an SEC-caliber QB

Shaun King is not very smart

By now, many of you have seen this clip from ESPN's tour of the 50 states in regards to college football, but it certainly merits attention from any college football fan. It is absolutely shameful that ESPN - the supposed "World Wide Leader in Sports" - allowed an apparently ignorant Shaun King to provide such stupid answers to John Saunder's questions regarding the rich history of college football in Mississippi.

First off, I have no issue with naming Walter Payton the greatest college player in state history. With the sheer amount of incredible individual talent to come through the state through the years, it's an endless argument, but it's easy to make a case for Payton. The issues come with the other "history" questions King fields.

Calling the 1999 mittippi tate bulldogs the best team in state history is absolutely comical at best. Behind the brilliant coaching strategy of Mr. Cutcliffe, the Rebels gave the Egg Bowl away that year. And while the 10-2 record and a top 15 finish is nice, the Rebels 2003 team finished 7-1 in the SEC and was a painful loss to LSU away from an 8-0 record. That team or certainly last year's Rebel team would have destroyed those '99 dogs.

ESPN didn't post the the segment where Saunders asked King about the "best coach in state history" question, which is probably for the best. Of all the football coaches in the history of Mississippi, Shaun King proclaimed Sylvester "goo goo g'joob" Croom as the greatest. He of the 21-38 (10-30 SEC) career record. He of the one winning season in 5 years. He of the "be good or be gone" mantra, despite the Urban Myer-esque arrest numbers during his tenure.

The man was an absolute fraud... a clown propped up by the local media fascinated with his skin color. Even the most loyal of bulldog faithful were happy to see him axed because he just flat out couldn't coach. Or recruit. Or conjugate verbs correctly. He was an embarrassment and left the program in as equally as bad a shape as he inherited it.

Despite all of those achievements, Shaun King proclaimed him the best coach in Mississippi's history. Not Johnny Vaught. Not Jeff Bower. Sylvester Croom.

John Saunders and Mike Lupica ruined The Sports Reporters with their personal agendas, so it's not surprising to see Saunders in on a stunt like this. Shaun King is new to the gig, so he was probably just doing what he was told. ESPN always had a fascination with Croom and this was just another way for them to sing his praises, which is not the easiest thing to do when you have a record like Croom's.

Auburn, Arkansas among projected most improved

In today’s Sporting News Today, Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis each answer the question “Which teams are on the rise?” Matt Hayes offers nothing of interest for SEC fans, citing UCLA, SMU, Colorado, Oklahoma State, and North Carolina State. Dave Curtis though offers plenty of fodder for bloggers across the SEC West.

Let’s start with his pick of Arkansas. Here’s how he views it:

Arkansas +4
2008: 5-7, 2009: 9-4
Here’s why: Where Bobby Petrino goes, wins follow. He’ll be this season’s example of the second-year bump enjoyed at the highest level by Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer, among others. If Ryan Mallett can quit breaking fingers, he’s the best quarterback in the SEC West. Four wins seem a given in the nonconference (Missouri State, Eastern Michigan, Troy, and Texas A&M in Dallas). And the defense will tackle well enough to manage a 4-4 SEC record and a win in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

I happen to agree with him that the Hogs will be much improved. Say what you want to about Bobby Petrino - and I have - but the man wins games. If Ryan Mallett stays healthy and out of trouble, the Arkansas offense should be very solid.

I do take issue with a few of his assumptions though. When Chris Low ranked Jevan Snead the 3rd best player in the SEC, many felt that was too high as he’d only produced for one season, and in all honesty, it wasn’t even until the second half of the season that it all clicked for him. That said, how can you possibly rate Mallett the best QB in the division? He hasn’t started a game since 2007 when he completed 43.3% of his passes and compiled a 7/5 TD/INT ratio. Snead may not have proved it over a extended period of time (yet), but he a better track record than Mallett.

Arkansas’ defense should be better as it returns 79.4% of its tackles from last year, but a 4-4 record in conference is certainly no given. Home games against mittippi tate and Auburn seem gimmes and a home tilt with South Carolina is certainly winnable. The road slate is brutal with trips to Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU and a home game against UGA. Right now, I’d hardly count any of those as wins.

And lastly, the comparison of Petrino to Stoops, Tressel, and Meyer is pointless as they all won national championships in their second years at their current employers. Arkansas is not winning a national title this season.

That said, I can see Arkansas winning 9 games before anything he says about Auburn comes to fruition.

Auburn +3
2008: 5-7, 2009: 8-5
Here’s why: Don’t expect another tumultuous season on The Plains. The new coaching staff, with its limousines on recruiting trips and Big Cat Weekend for unofficial visits, has at least unified the program. Tommy Tuberville’s recruits will keep this defense strong, and by midseason, new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will turn one of Auburn’s quarterbacks into a proficient passer.

So, just so I'm 100% clear here, Gene Chizik won 5 games in 2 seasons at Iowa State and now, apparently magically, he’s going to win 8 in a single season? Riiiiiiiiiight...

I will concede that Auburn’s defense should be solid. Tuberville recruited good players on that side of the ball and Chizik’s reputation was built on his accomplishments as a defensive coordinator. But the spread offense failed miserably last year. What makes anyone think that it will work this year with much of the same key personnel? Particularly work well enough to win 8 games?

When I look at their schedule, I can’t find 8 wins anywhere. Home games against Louisiana Tech, mittippi tate, Testacle Tech Ball State, and Furman are most likely gimme wins, but that’s only 4. Squeezing 3 or 4 more wins (depending on how Curtis sees their bowl game going) out of West Virginia, @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @LSU, Ole Miss, @UGA, and Alabama is not going to be easy for this team.

Thursday Links

* As I predicted – not that I really went out on a limb – Chris Low ranks Jevan Snead the 3rd best player in the SEC. It’s hard to really disagree with him. Snead’s talents are best summed up in this sentence:

He's the kind of talent at quarterback that doesn't come along very often, and more importantly, the kind of talent you build championship teams around.

That leaves only UT DB Eric Berry and that one dude who plays QB at Florida… whatever his name is. If you were going to have a draft to start a college team, each would likely be the #1 overall pick for their side of the ball. Tebow and Berry are once a decade talents that have dominated their positions for the last 2 years. As good as Snead is, the gap between 2nd best and 3rd best players in the SEC is very, very big.

* Low also has a good read up entitled Simply Loaded in the SEC and looks at the stoutest units in the conference. Predictably, the stable of studs that Nutt and Nix have available at DL is mentioned:

Former Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron obviously knew a thing or two about recruiting and developing defensive linemen. The Rebels will go about eight deep across the defensive front in 2009, and that's after losing first-round draft pick Peria Jerry. Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt says pass-rushing extraordinaire Greg Hardy is dialed in mentally like he hasn't seen him, and tackle Jerrell Powe lost weight and is coming off a stellar spring. Ends Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett combined for 17.5 tackles for loss last season, and both are dynamic leaders. Ted Laurent, Lawon Scott and Justin Smith make for an imposing trio on the inside.

Other units mentioned are the Alabama DL, the LSU secondary, the UGA OL, the Arkansas WRs, and the UF secondary (which is doing just fine thanks since parting ways with the cancerous Jamar Hornsby.)

* Ole Miss guard Terrico White and 16 players you’ve probably never heard of were invited to the Team USA U19 Trials in Colorado Springs, CO.

Glancing over the roster, it appears that Terrico has a legitimate shot at making the roster. This is a great chance for him to get in some additional live game action and hopefully develop a little more reliable outside jumper. If he can consistently knock down an open 15-20 foot jump shot next season, it will open up world of possibilities for him and the Rebel offense in general.

So apparently Ole Miss is going to be good or something...

One of my favorite SEC sites - GatorTailgating.com - posted this Rebel football preview earlier today. It's a very well-informed piece that covers a lot. It wraps up with this doozie:

Predictions: I honestly see the Rebels going 12-0 (8-0) and being in national title contention. (Yes I know it is Ole Miss) The only true tests on their schedule are Alabama and LSU, both of whom will have to travel to Oxford. They will lose to the Gators in the SEC championship and go to a BCS bowl.

Those expectations are a little loftier than mine, but I'll not argue with them.

The one thing from the write-up I do question is this quote:

These aren’t the Rebels we all know and used to love to see on the schedule.

Last I checked, we've won 3/4 from the Gators, including 2 in a row in Gainesville. My guess is the Gators are glad to not see us on their schedule this season.

There's potentially a little bit of Pro-Mullen bias lingering as they're predicting a 5-7 season for mitippi tate, which is at least one more win than most are predicting. But that's understandable based on Mullen's run with UF, and I won't hold it against them...

Wednesday quickies

A couple of things caught my eye today perusing the web on my lunch break...

* Doc Saturday lists the six SEC teams he's like to see play a home/home with USC, and Ole Miss is one of them. He offers this explanation:

We're going to be honest here: We really, really want Houston Nutt plopped down in central Los Angeles for no other reason than to see what will happen. It's the college football equivalent of feeding peyote to your pit bull, and we are cheerfully unashamed of our desire to rubberneck. Those watching last year's Cotton Bowl will also recall the Rebels' recent penchant for knocking off media darlings -- while we would not necessarily pick Ole Miss to win outright, an upset would be far from the weirdest thing Nutt has ever done.

Hard to believe that statement is being written about a program that went 3-21 in the SEC over a very recent 3-year span.

* Then of course there's this, which the very title - Nutt, Rebels not giving up on Hornsby - is enough to make me sick. I am a Rebel through and through and I have for damn sure given up on Hornsby. I don't want him anywhere near Oxford or the football team.

Nutt said this about the nefarious delinquent:

"Talking to him, lawyers, his mama, coaches, people that have been around him, I think there's a lot of good there"

Good? The only "good" about Hornsby is his Rivals/Scout star rating and his size as a DB. He's been in trouble - in form or another - since he enrolled at Florida and we just don't need that distraction on the team this year. God bless the Right Reverend Houston Nutt for what's he's accomplished as a Rebel so far, but he is absolutely in the wrong for recruiting Hornsby in the first place and not cutting his losses now.

Even if Hornsby does end up in Oxford this fall, does anyone out there actually think he'll keep his nose clean long enough to play and make an impact? This is a disaster waiting to happen and I hope the staff realizes that before it's too late.

Monday Lunch-Break Thoughts

What an awesome, awesome weekend to be a Rebel and be in Oxford. The weather was absolutely perfect, Double Decker Fest was fantastic (as usual), and oh yeah, by the way, we took 2 out of 3 from Georgia in baseball.

The atmosphere wasn't lost on the Georgia players either. Both slugger Rich Puythress and head Coach Dave Perno had rave reviews of the stadium and the "experience":

“It's the best environment I've been around,” Georgia slugger Rich Poythress said. “I've been to LSU. I've been a lot of places, and it's the best environment, other than Omaha, that I've seen in college baseball."

"It's not just the environment,” UGA head coach Dave Perno said. “It's the stadium. They've got everything. It's done right. It's the best we've been in, not just the environment and being tough to play in, but just the looks, the aesthetics. Everything's done right and I tip my hat to Mike and Ole Miss and their athletic department. They've done a great job."

* While we were partying in Oxford, our #2-ranked tennis team was partying on the Plains, celebrating its 2009 SEC Tournament title to go along with its regular season title. That's two in a row for Coach Billy Chadwick and his boys.

* That's not to forget that our Rebels were well represented in the NFL draft this year. The 4 Rebels drafted tied for 4th most in the conference. Alabama also had 4 players selected, and Georgia and LSU each had 6. But it was South Carolina that led the conference with 7 draft picks this year, stealing the lead with Ryan Succop's announcement as Mr. Irrelevant. Just further proof that you can't win in this league without a competent QB, regardless of who you surround them with.

A big Dead Guy congratulations go out to: Michael Oher (#23 Baltimore), Peria Jerry (#24 Atlanta), Mike Wallace (#84 Pittsburgh), and Jamarca Sanford (#231 Minnesota). As well as Ashlee Palmer closed the season, I suspect he'll wind up somewhere as a free agent as well.

Only one team failed to land anyone in the draft. It was the second straight year that moou achieved this milestone. But hey, at least they're bringing back the Dawg Pound Rock next year. In its first incarnation, the DPR just came across as thuggish. Doing it next year, when they'll be fortunate to win 5 games, will just come across as a combination of sad and comical.

* A big thank you also to Ed Orgeron for stocking us up with the talent that he did. While I refuse to believe he'll ever be a competent head coach - unlike this article - I appreciate the hard work and effort he put it during his time in Oxford. I can't say I wish him luck though.

And I love message board comments. They're the greatest...

mikesean865 writes:

hands down we have the best coaching staff in college football, maybe ever assembled. Who would have thought last fall that by this spring we would be the envy of football fans across the country as far as coaching staff goes. they are all trembling in their little boots right now because they know what awaits them for the next ten years. two national championships minimum, 4 sec championships minimum. Write it down i said it. FEAR THE KIFF!!!

SEC Football as Tom Hanks movies

So I'm a few New Belgium Mighty Arrows into the Final Four games Saturday night and start thumbing through the guide during a commercial break when I stumbled across three Tom Hanks movies on at the same time. While the beer certainly didn't live up the standards set by its Fat Tire brethren, it did help inspire this ridiculous post.

So, here they are, without further ado, all 12 SEC football teams as Tom Hanks movies. Got better suggestions? Leave ‘em in the comments.

Alabama: Turner & Hooch
Detective Scott Turner is a straight laced, no frills kind of detective. Nick Saban is a no-nonsense, no frills kind of coach – never a hair out of place in his feathery bangs. Between his owner dying and pairing up with Turner, Hooch was a mess. He drooled everywhere, tore things up, and basically a lost cause. Between the Bear dying and before hiring Saban, Alabama was much the same way. Sure they would do well every now and then, but they had to cheat to do it. They bought a national title in the early 90s, then suffered through several ignominious years before hiring Saban.

Arkansas: Catch Me If You Can
In his early days, Frank Abagnale imitated an airline pilot, a teacher’s assistant, a doctor, and an attorney. When things took a turn for the worse, he’d disappear in the night and move on to his next gig. Finally, after getting busted, he aligned himself with Hanks’ Carl Hanratty and began improving national fraud defense. Bobby Petrino is currently at his 12th coaching spot since entering the business in 1983. He’s been the head coach of 3 different teams in the last 5 years and has flirted with several others. He seems to have found a niche in Fayetteville though and the Hogs have a chance to be much improved from last season.

Auburn: Apollo 13
Before takeoff, everyone was excited about Apollo 13’s mission to the moon. Last season was supposed to be a good one for Auburn. A new high-flying offense was in place, the defense returned 6 of its starting back 7, and the Tigers were ranked as high as #10 in the preseason. Needless to say, much-like the ill-fated Apollo 13 lunar mission, Auburn’s season encountered problem after problem. There was bickering amongst staff before finally crashing roughly back to earth at the end. The major difference being that Jim Lovell was congratulated for his leadership in the “successful failure” that was Apollo 13; Tommy Tuberville was inexplicably shown the door.

Florida: Sleepless in Seattle
After Sam Baldwin's wife died, he looked lost and clueless, and didn't know who to turn to. He packs up and moves out west and begins dating a girl that his son can't stand. He finally meets the one he's meant to be with at the end and live happily ever after. After Spurrier left Florida, the Gators looked lost and clueless, seeking solace in the arms of Ron Zook, who the Gator Nation hated from the beginning. Now, they've found Urban Meyer and have won 2 titles in 3 years and will be favored to win it all next year.

Georgia: Bonfire of the Vanities
Tom Wolfe’s Bonfire of the Vanities is a fantastic novel that was a bestseller and huge success. Unfortunately, despite a All-Star cast with Hanks, Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Melanie Griffith, etc., the movie version pretty much sucked. When you read about Georgia’s team, the star power was obvious – Stafford, Moreno, Green, etc. Expectations were very high, including a preseason #1 ranking. Then, much like BotV, when you watched it on TV, you realize it’s a little disappointing on screen.

Kentucky: Saving Private Ryan
The beginning of Saving Private Ryan – the storming of the beaches at Normandy – is absolutely phenomenal. It’s beautifully crafted cinematography at its peak. Once the movie settles in though, it’s really not that different from every other war movie ever filmed. There’s a little bit of a twist at the end of the movie to tie it all together. The last two seasons, Kentucky has started out as well as possible: 5-0 and 4-0. Once the seasons settled in, the ‘Cats were average at best, finishing only 7-5 and 6-5. The bowl victories were nice surprises to wrap up the seasons.

LSU: The Man with One Red Shoe
Richard Drew is just an average joe who - due to circumstances beyond his control - looks goofy as he wears mismatched shoes on a flight. He is identified as a CIA target, and though he remains completely oblivious to everything around him, it all works out for him in the end. Les Miles always looks goofy wearing the world's largest hat and was certainly an average joe at Oklahoma State - 28-21 overall, 16-16 in the Big 12. And things have certainly worked out well for Miles so far, despite a seemingly oblivious approach to coaching.

Mississippi State: You’ve Got Mail
While I'm not a fan of either Sleepless in Seattle or You've Got Mail, I know a cheap knock off when I see one. The producers of You've Got Mail were trying to cash in on the chemistry that Hanks and Meg Ryan had in Sleepless in Seattle, but the result just wasn't as good. Same thing in Starkville. Hoping to recreate some of the recent magic in Gainesville, the Bulldogs hired away Dan Mullen from Meyer's staff, and while the results have yet to be seen, it's hard to imagine the end result being anything less than a poor attempt at recreating UF's offense.

Ole Miss: That Thing You Do!
Mr. White takes a group of talented musicians with no experience outside the town of Erie, PA, and molds them into the No. 1 rock band in the country. Houston Nutt, stepped into Oxford and took a group of talented kids who had never been shown "how to win" and recorded a 9-4 season and a Cotton Bowl victory. The major difference being that The Wonders broke up at the end of the movie, while Nutt seems to have the Rebels in place to continue their success.

South Carolina: Volunteers
Lawrence Whatley Bourne III had it all. He was a spoiled rich kid leading a pampered life until he had to join the Peace Corps to escape his creditors. Steve Spurrier had it all. He’d won a National championship as the coach of his alma mater, had the Gators as one of the top programs in the entire country, and a fun punching bag in Phil Fulmer. He got greedy, left for the NFL, and when that didn’t work out, sought refuge in Columbia where – so far – has done more to tarnish his legacy than build upon it.

Tennessee: The Terminal
What? You were expecting Volunteers? Think about it… Viktor Navorski can’t go back to whence he came as a war broke out. So he’s stuck in a foreign land, has trouble communicating with people, garners strange looks from people, and eventually makes some important friends in the airport. That’s pretty much the Lane Kiffin experience. He can’t go back to the NFL because he angered Al Davis, he’s become a one-man sideshow that it’s hard not to stop and stare at, he's found it very difficult to communicate with his peers, but he did surround himself with a knowledgeable staff.

Vanderbilt: Big
All Josh Baskin wanted to be was big. He couldn’t get the girl or ride the roller coaster, so Zoltar granted him his wish. He grew up, moved to New York and got to play with the big boys, before wishing to be a boy again. After years of wishing they were big, the Commodores finally broke through last year with their first bowl appearance since 1982. Unfortunately, like Josh Baskin’s appearance as an adult, Vandy’s was a ruse and one that won’t last, but one that made for good tv while it did.

Bruce Feldman likes the Rebels... a lot

Bruce Feldman has the Rebels pretty high on a list that we've never even been considered for: Teams most likely to win the BCS Title.

He lists the Rebels at #4 and offers this explanation:

Ole Miss: This may look crazy, but keep reading. The Rebels are fearless. They won at both Florida and LSU last season. They have a budding star at quarterback in Jevan Snead, some terrific receivers, and potentially the best D-line in the country. They also have the luxury of playing the softest nonconference schedule in the country, with two games against FCS teams, UAB and a Memphis team they beat every year. Better still, they get Alabama and LSU at home. Can the Rebs handle success and expectations now? We'll see. A Thursday night trip to South Carolina appears to be the toughest road game.

It's certainly nice to be on this list, but the inclusion of Notre Dame at the bottom really throws it off. Sure the Irish are projected to be better, particularly against that schedule, but 10th most likely to win the BCS Title? That would imply Fat Charlie beating a good team, something he's done only once in his tenure in South Bend. They could feasibly be 10-2 or 9-3 at the end of the season, but that's certainly not going to get them in the BCS title game against Florida. It would likely earn them an SEC asswhoopin' in the Sugar Bowl, hopefully by the Rebs.